Austin Texas Real Estate Blog

Austin commercial real estate foreclosures in 2009 increased to more than double their 2008 levels, reflecting the effects of the recent nationwide real estate market difficulties. Austin suffered the highest rate of commercial foreclosures in the state of Texas, but other large metropolitan areas were significantly affected as well. This increase is attributed in part to large-scale layoffs in the manufacturing sector, which have created problems for a number of local industrial concerns. The commercial foreclosure trend is expected to continue throughout the first half of 2010, due to continuing economic woes; experts warn against overly optimistic expectations for the manufacturing and commercial sectors. Approximately $500 billion in commercial loans are expected to come due for refinancing in 2010, with as much as $800 billion more in 2010; this will likely spur additional periods of high foreclosure rates as businesses struggle to find financing in the current lending climate.

Industrial real estate properties were hardest hit, with a 400 percent increase in foreclosures over 2008. Retail shopping centers and vacant land also experienced a less dramatic rise in foreclosure rates. Some economic analysts see this as an opportunity for businesses to acquire additional space at bargain prices; with real estate prices in some areas at near-record lows, many companies that are currently renting space may be able to purchase property instead. This may actually spur an increase in commercial real estate sales during 2010 as businesses take advantage of the opportunity to expand their holdings at discount prices.

Commercial foreclosures represented about seven percent of foreclosures in the Austin area. One bright spot in the economic outlook for these properties is the increase in companies looking to expand into the Austin business market. Austin is an attractive location for commercial relocation due to its highly-trained labor force and resilient economic base. Most analysts in the area expect that corporate relocations and expansions will continue to increase in Austin, spurred in part by the lower cost of commercial real estate in the overall market.

Some analysts are worried about the increase in short sales.

A recent deluge of short sales is creating difficulties for home sellers and buyers alike according to most real estate analysts. Lenders are overwhelmed by the number of short sales requests and are taking far longer to process offers from willing buyers. This delay often causes buyers to withdraw their offers and contracts to fall through, necessitating the relisting of the home and further delays for anxious sellers. Banks and mortgage providers simply don’t have the staff in place to handle the increased volume of short sales, and further delays result when lenders must request necessary paperwork from investors and secondary lienholders.

Short sales occur when lenders agree to discount the remainder of a mortgage balance rather than foreclose on the property; the lending institution then puts the home on the market, and the bank collects the proceeds of the sale as payment in full for the outstanding debt. Because of recent market conditions, many homeowners have found themselves in serious financial difficulty; their home’s value has dipped, sometimes to less than the remaining mortgage debt. Typically the bank is willing to take the current appraised value of the home as full payment, even when this does not cover the entire amount of the mortgage. In some cases, however, lenders have been known to cancel contracts and raise the price of the property, sometimes to an unrealistic level. This is due in part to changes in the appraisal process, which have also led to serious underappraisals of properties in cities like Austin. The use of foreclosures as comparables is only one of the many deficiencies in the current system; in short sales especially, it can be difficult for lenders to obtain an accurate appraisal of the property’s true worth.

While Austin has seen fewer short sales than many other metropolitan areas, the continuing rise in short sales volume has some real estate experts worried. Short sales are expected to increase still more in response to the November 30, 2009 announcement of a federal program that provides financial incentives to sellers and lenders who avoid foreclosure through short sales. These transactions place an additional burden on all parties. Sellers must provide proof of economic hardship before their request for a short sale will be approved. Lenders must assume responsibility for paperwork relating to the sale of the home; buyers and real estate agents must be prepared for lengthy delays in processing and accepting offers and closing on the short sale property. The entire process takes much longer than traditional home sales, and can be further delayed if banks and buyers cannot agree on a mutually acceptable price.  While Austin’s real estate market remains comparatively stable, analysts are watching the situation closely to ensure that short sales do not drive down home prices in our area.

Inventory down, foreclosures down

Austin’s inventory of unsold homes decreased by about 20% over the last year, according to real estate analysts ZipRealty Inc. This is in contrast to several other housing markets, which are still seeing increases due to foreclosure and voluntary surrender of homes by financially insolvent owners. Austin joins cities like San Diego, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Phoenix in reduction of outstanding home inventories over the last year. This shift may indicate the end of the buyer’s market that has been prevalent throughout the United States; while some urban areas will be slower to recover from the housing market downturn, the reduced inventory of homes will help drive up home values and increase the likelihood that homes already on the market will sell more quickly.

This news comes on the heels of RealtyTrac’s announcement that foreclosure filings are continuing to decrease. November 2009 marked the fourth straight month of lessened foreclosure activity throughout the United States; recent federal initiatives including the Home Affordable Modification Program and other Fannie Mae programs are credited with a large portion of the decrease in foreclosures and defaults. Much improvement is still needed, since it’s estimated that one out of every 417 homes is currently in some phase of default or foreclosure, presenting an overwhelming burden on the housing market during a crucial stage of its recovery. Nevada, Florida, and California have the dubious honor of holding down the top three spots in foreclosure proceedings compared with number of homes.

The reduction in unsold homes in Austin is expected to drive home prices higher and result in increased competition for available homes. The buyer’s market in Austin may be coming to an end, making this the best possible time to investigating home buying options before the prices return to their pre-slump values. Bargains are still available, but it’s necessary to act quickly before the home of your dreams is off the market for good.

Information provided courtesy of Alamo Title.

According to the Urban Land Institute, Austin is one of the real estate hot spots for 2010 development. Along with Washington, D.C., Boston, San Francisco and New York City, Austin is expected to see a surge in commercial development in coming years; the study indicates that 2010 will be one of the best times to buy, coming as it does at the expected bottom of the cyclical market. For those in a position to acquire real estate at this advantageous time, the return on investment is likely to be exceptionally high; 2010 may well be the year to watch in terms of commercial real estate investments.

Austin’s low rate of state tax and continuing commitment to corporate investment is credited with a large part of its economic stability and potential for growth. Its position as the capital of Texas provides robust support for its local economy, while its highly desirable residential environment has helped to keep housing prices stable during recent housing industry downturns. Austin’s high-tech industrial base also contributes to the overall real estate market stability, ensuring high demand for commercial and residential real estate continues well into the future.

The study also outlines some strategies for commercial real estate investors throughout the U.S. market. One of the most crucial is, of course, to invest in high-growth areas like Austin; this ensures the ability to attract and retain high-quality tenants for commercial properties. Additionally, investors should be highly selective in their choice of properties. Class A properties offer higher quality in materials and manufacture, and therefore represent a better long-term investment than other buildings. Location remains a key element to return on investment; cities like Austin offer investors a much better chance for a high rate of return on their initial investments. The study also recommends sticking to a cash basis for all real estate transactions; this will allow investors to take advantage of exceptional opportunities as they arise. Finally, the Urban Land Institute study recommends patience; by remaining steadfast and purchasing wisely, investors will be set to reap the profits when the commercial real estate rebounds over the coming years.

Austin’s real estate market offers unique advantages to investors and homebuyers. The commercial real estate picture in Austin is already showing signs of recovery, making this an optimal time for investors to jump into the market and take advantage of current low prices. Austin’s combination of desirable residential areas and robust economic growth makes it the perfect arena for commercial real estate investment in today’s market.

What Did Interest Rates Do This Week?
** based on Freddie Mac weekly average survey **

30-yr Fixed – Slightly Higher
This Week:  4.92%
Last Week:  4.87%
1yr Ago:  6.46%

15-yr Fixed – Slightly Higher
This Week:  4.37%
Last Week:  4.33%
1yr Ago:  6.14%

Jumbo Fixed
Average 30-yr Fixed:  5.895%

Mortgage Market Update

Highlight of This Week’s Major Economic Reports

Who would’ve thought a few months ago that we’d see the Dow top 10,000 again this year, but here we are at the beginning of the 4th quarter, and the stock market seems to be on a relentless drive, further fueling what is now the expectation of economic growth before the end of the year.  And, while money was being poured into the stock market, they were pulled out of the safe haven of US Treasuries, which has consequently caused the spike in interest rates.

Furthermore, recent readings on local market conditions across the country have revealed growing stability – and even some consistent improvement – the likes of which we haven’t seen in two years.  This supports the consensus that a technical end to the recession is looming near.  However, with unemployment still problematic and the issue of health care still unresolved, consumers aren’t feeling as upbeat as the numbers may convey.  As a result, consumer spending is still lagging with Retail Sales reporting a 1.5% slide last month.

What to Look for Next Week

More inflation reports and an updated peak at the housing market will headline next week’s economic calendar.  Inflation is expected to remain tame, while home sales are expected to post positive results, as first-time buyers flock to take advantage of the tax credit.

Short-Term Rate Outlook

Relatively Unchanged

Stay Informed:  What’s in the News
“When Will Recession End?” from Texas A&M Real Estate Center
Three things have to happen before the current recession can be declared ended. One is underway, said Dr. Mark Dotzour, chief economist for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

“I think the economy will begin to turn for the better once the health care and cap-and-trade issues are settled. Those two political debates are creating substantial uncertainty for business owners and investors,” he said.

The personal savings rate is the second trend to watch, said Dotzour.

“Over 70 percent of the U.S. economy is consumer spending,” he said. “When the savings rate finally levels out, consumer spending will start to increase again.”

Increased corporate profits are the third trend that must occur to bring the recession to an end. There is some indication that has already begun. The last three data points were all up. Rising profits lessen the urge for companies to lay off workers.

Research Economist Dr. Jim Gaines added that the increased corporate profits have come from reduced costs, not the kind that leads to expansion.

“Keep your eye on these three issues,” Dotzour said. “When they are resolved, the economy will begin to turn the corner.”

“Texas Cities Labor Away” from Texas A&M Real Estate Center
Four of the five best labor markets in the country are in Texas, according to a new study compiled by Portfolio.com.

Austin leads the way, followed by San Antonio. Houston ranks fourth and Dallas–Fort Worth fifth.

Landing at third is Baton Rouge.

All 100 metropolitan areas in the study, including those in Texas, have seen employment decline since last year. However, while 5 percent of the nation’s private-sector jobs have disappeared since June 2008, the collective decline for the ‘Texas Four’ has been 2.6 percent.

The Texas markets still have 589,500 more jobs than they did five years ago.

Portfolio.com used a nine-part formula to analyze employment trends in the nation’s 100 largest labor markets. The formula used midyear U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data for 2004–09, including unemployment rates and trends, and raw and percentage changes in private-sector employment.

At the midyear housing forecast meeting of the Home Builders Association of Greater Austin, Mark Sprague, the Austin partner for housing market tracker Residential Strategies, Inc., said that the lack of new lots being developed in central Texas, along with the continued slowdown in homebuilding through 2009 is going to create a shortage of new homes and an increase in home prices in the near future.

With mortgage rates at historic lows and the $8000 federal tax credit for first-time home buyers, the inventory of homes available is declining. Even as builders have picked up the pace of new developments, they still lag 2008 by about 35%.

A little more than half of the homes constructed in 2006 were built in 2008, about 50% more than the estimate for 2009. Even as home builders look to gear up for a recovering economy, tighter credit and the up to two years it can take get a new development approved point to builders not being able to meet the demand when the economy does turn around and the housing market rebounds.

Sprague pointed out that the market appears to be stabilizing and now is a good time to get prepared for the turnaround. It would appear there is a high demand for houses in the under $200,000 price range. At the same time the luxury market will lag behind the overall market with starts of homes priced over $300,000 off 50% from a year ago. Although the annual pace of home starts is down in all price ranges, the most significant declines continue to be at the higher price points.

Of the major metropolitan areas across the United States of America with a potential labor force above 750 thousand, only 1 has gained jobs since 2008. That incredible achievement was reached in Austin, Texas. The National Bureau of Labor released the results comparing Apr. 2008 and Apr. 2009, and for the 3rd month in a row, Austin bested all others in job gains. The current unemployment rate for Austin, Texas is 5.8 percent down 3.6% from the national average of 9.4 percent. Only the 38 top metropolitan labor force cities were involved in this survey.

The significant job increases for 2009 have been in the industries related to Restaurants, Retail, and Hospitality. These services are provided direct to the public and even through a recession they are seeing modest growth opportunities. Direct impact on Austin’s job market, goods producing industries and technology based industries are down across the region. The jobs in the direct to consumer industries mentioned above, compensate significantly for those jobs lost.

The lowest unemployment rates in Texas are Austin with 5.8 percent and San Antonio with 5.4 percent. After that the next closest job healthy cities are Huston at 6.3 percent and Dallas-Fort Worth with 6.6 percent. Both are still below the national average, as are many smaller metro area’s who are reported at 8 percent and above unemployment. This proves the value that the Austin Metropolitan area offers to their residents and new home owners.

When someone is looking for a second home, either as a vacation home or an investment property, the motivation and influencing factors are very different than that from a first home buyer. This is more valid in today’s buyers market.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released a report that showed vacation home sales dropped a whopping 30 plus percent in 2008. It appears to have parallel reasons compared to the primary residence market. The sales came within the deeply distressed, deeply discounted home market. The median price of a vacation home fell as far down at 150 thousand dollars across the country. Of those who did settle on the second home purchase, the vast majority planned to use the second home for themselves. This means that people are still looking for second homes and are financing them.

Even with the declining numbers, there are significant pluses to this. The housing market is poised for growth again, especially in the Austin area. This also means as people are looking to sell their home, they have two potential markets to target. Growth options continue to be opened, making the housing market more viable.
Now is the time to buy, and sellers are getting more attention.

It is no secret that the housing market has suffered a great many blows over the last several years. Austin has seen its share of woes, as well, though overall it has done much better than many other areas in the country. Last year brought somewhat less demand than supply, causing homes to sit on the market longer. According to recent projections for 2009, the home supply is less than 6 months, which is still considered a stable market. The national average is almost a full year. Average home prices have also remained fairly stable in Austin. This area never saw the housing bubble that comparable cities have experienced, making the area less affected by the recession.

There are many factors that create a decent housing market. Austin has them all. While the nation is struggling with astounding job loss and a skyrocketing unemployment rate, the city of Austin has maintained an almost nonexistent unemployment rate. Jobs are still available here, drawing more buyers to the area. Home appreciation rates here are above 5%, according to the report, putting Austin in the lead nationally for this. Interest rates on loans are at their lowest right now, making it easy for a credit approved buyer to purchase a home.

Even before the recession was formally recognized, Austin was seen as having one of the strongest local economies in the country. While there is expected to be a slowdown in job growth in 2009, Austin is still expected to fare much better overall. Home values and prices will remain decent in this area.