Austin Texas Real Estate Blog

November 18th, 2007 9:40 PM

It’s pleasing to see that in these times of uncertain economic futures, that Austin is still vibrant and drawing people to it with its strong economy, job market, positive lifestyle and affordable cost of living. As a transplant myself, having lived in Connecticut for most of my life, I know what it’s like to live in a so-so place and then move to a place like Austin. Not to put down Connecticut, because it has its postives, but it’s nothing like Austin if you are under retirement age or less than affluent.

Austin sports some of the best weather, most affordable living, and most to do for those who have an interest in the outdoors, want to retire with a mind for making the most of their nest eggs, or have the desire for southern living in a progressive and diverse town.

I’m not much one for statistics, but below are some great details about Texas’ and Austin’s recent population growth! The snipet is from one of my favorite Austin Information sources, The Neal Spelce Letter (www.AustinLetter.com). If you don’t have a subscription, and you are interested in keeping abreast of the Austin events, I suggest you get a copy!

No matter where you go in urban and suburban Texas, it’s hard to get away from this growth (though we’ll mention some pockets of slow-and-no-growth in just a minute). If this trend from 2000 to 2006 continues, Texas is likely to add another 3.6 to 4.0 million people by 2010 – boosting its total population to more than 25 million, according to highly-regarded Steve Murdoch, who has made a career out of studying Texas population trends.

Austin’s population growth this century has been truly phenomenal. As an example, Dallas is the nation’s ninth largest city. Yet Austin added 18,600 people from 2005 to 2006 while Dallas added fewer – nearly 17,000. And Dallas was the eighth fastest-growing city in the nation.

Austin was the 6th fastest-growing city in the nation from 2005 to 2006 – by actual count, not by percentage (that favors smaller cities). This population explosion is happening all around us – in contrast to the rest of the nation. Texas had five of the ten cities with the largest numerical increases from 2005-2006. No other state had more than one.

In percentage terms, the nation’s fastest-growing place from 2000-2006 was in the Austin metro area – Hutto, in Williamson County, which grew by 666%! Also in the Austin metro, Kyle, in Hays County, was in 5th place, growing 289%.

Austin Metro Prices!

November 4th, 2007 11:17 PM

I must admit that since becoming a realtor and working in Austin, I’ve been jealous of the folks that moved on the California and Florida markets in 2002 and made a killing. That said, I’m sure glad that I’m not one of the last condos going to be going up in Miami or one of the developers who just broke ground last year in California. Banking on a crazy year over year appreciation, while exhilirating if all goes well, is more of a gamble than I like to take. In retrospect I’m excited to own in the Austin metro area where we experience moderate year over year sustainable growth.

The excerpt below from The Neal Spelce Austin Letter(www.AustinLetter.com) gives guidance that Austin metro area home values continue climbing steadily – in direct contrast to many other US cities, where home values are nose-diving and predicted to continue that freefall.

For the past seven years, Standard & Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have tracked home prices in 20 US cities. Austin is not included in the Index, but it is informative to see what is happening elsewhere. Prices were down 4.4% in the past year in those 20 cities – the steepest decline since the Index began. Check out these year-over-year declines:

Tampa, down 10.1% … Detroit, down 9.3% … San Diego, down 8.3% … Phoenix, down 8% … Miami, down 7.8% … Las Vegas, down 7.6% …Washington, DC, down 7.2% … Los Angeles, down 5.7% … San Francisco, down 4.2% … Cleveland, down 4.1% … Minneapolis, down 4%…, New York City, down 3.8% … Boston, down 3.6% … Chicago, down 1.3% and Denver, down 0.4%. The home prices in the remaining 20 city list – Dallas, Atlanta, Portland, Charlotte and Seattle – were all up.

A separate report indicates this freefall will continue in California. Goldman Sachs, using a formula that involves historical home prices and income growth, figures homes are overvalued statewide in California by between 35% and 40%. This is astounding. What does this amount to in dollars? Goldman pointed out the median sales price of a California home in August was $589,000 – but that it should be around $375,000.

This California collapse has at least two effects in the Austin area: 1) Californians, taking money from the sale of their homes, will not have as much moolah as they have had in the past to buy homes in Central Texas, and 2) when Thanksgiving rolls around in three weeks, you can add to your “thankful” list that you live/work/play/invest in Austin.

Can’t beat a great local economy, a wonderful place to live, and predictable appreciation and valuation of one of your largest investments!

Happy belated Halloween! Can you believe that it’s already time to start preparing for Thanksgiving? Gobble Gobble

October 31st, 2007 7:31 PM

Here’s some interesting data that I put together from the ACTRIS MLS system and thought that I’d share.

The areas correlate to the MLS areas for Austin. I’ve selected only the areas that I work in so my apologies in advance if you are interested in another area.

Then you’ll see the # of newly listed properties in that area. The properties include single family homes, condominiums, townhomes, lofts, and garden homes.

The average list price(LP) is pretty self explanatory, but for the sake of completeness it’s the average prices that sellers want to get for their homes.

The #Pending column shows the number of homes that have received and accepted an offer. These homes are not guaranteed to close and usually about 7% will fall out and start the sale process over. Note that under certain circumstances, such as the recent sub-prime correction in lending standards, as many as 40% of the contracts may fall off.

The second average list price (LP) column shows the average list price of homes that were put under contract.

# Sold represents the number of homes that have closed escrow and are now owned by a new person or entity.

The Average sale price (SP) column shows the average price of homes that were closed and transferred to a new owner.

The %SP/LP column depicts the ratio of sale price to list price. This column shows on average how close to list price sellers and buyers are able to agree on a purchase price. You should NOT use this to determine how much or little you should offer! Your real estate agent can help you with determining the market value of a subject property and help you factor in any other considerations, such as non-realty items, seller paid closing costs, duress on the part of either party, etc. Look for another blog post to go over all the ways that you should not attempt to value property and the ONLY ways that really matter for most residential purchases.

Average days on market (often referred to DOM by real estate agents) are how long the properties were on the market before they sold. It does not include the days that the property is in escrow, but instead is from the first date the property was listed until an offer was accepted and the property was listed as sale pending status.