Dec 13
Austin has a Great 2008 Ahead
Austin’s Econmic Outlook for 2008 - Healthy
December 13th, 2007 7:44 PM
With all the news about doom and gloom in the mortgage industry and a large portion of the country seeing slow sales, declining prices, and layoffs, it’s good to know that here in Austin we have a bright future ahead. A lot of people who are not familiar with the Texas economy and, in particular, not familiar with the cyclical growth of Austin/Central Texas, still seem to think that we’ll have a downturn in 2008. I disagree. The rational growth and limited investor speculation, along with a strong prosepct for job growth certainly make me feel better about this market than 2001-2004. Not that the early 2000’s were that bad, but they certainly weren’t great real estate wise.
The snipet below is from one of my favorite Austin Information sources, The Neal Spelce Letter (www.AustinLetter.com).
As 2007 draws to a close, the Austin-Round Rock metro area is in an enviable position, and when you examine the counties adjacent to the metro – especially those that make up the highly desirable and attractive Hill Country to the west – it looks even healthier economically.
A vibrant economy starts with jobs. When people are working, almost everything else falls into place. Sure, outside economic forces – such as tightened credit policies – have an impact. But, even then, tight credit may prove to be somewhat of a good thing if it keeps workers from getting deeper into debt.
The key point is that this part of Texas is a job mecca. For all practical purposes, anyone who wants a job has a job or can get a job. The five-county Austin-Round Rock metro area in October registered a miniscule 3.3% unemployment. And Travis County (Austin) with the largest population concentration had 3.2% unemployment.
The other four counties are also doing very well. Williamson County (Round Rock, Georgetown, Taylor) recorded 3.4% unemployment, Hays County (San Marcos) also came in at 3.4%, Bastrop County (Bastrop) tallied 3.5% and Caldwell County (Lockhart, Luling) notched 3.7% unemployment. All very, very solid.
And the job picture is even better in the adjacent Hill Country counties. While those counties are not officially included in the five-county Austin area, the population growth is surging west and many of their residents come into the Austin metro for shopping, health needs, entertainment and, yes, jobs. The Hill Country is very much a part of our trade area.
Consider Burnet County (Marble Falls) that abuts Travis County to the west. Its unemployment is an amazing 3.2%. Blanco County (Johnson City, Blanco) touches both Hays and Travis Counties and carries a 3.4% unemployment. And Gillespie County (Fredericksburg, Stonewall), adjacent to Blanco County’s western border, leads all the Hill Country and Central Texas with a 2.9% unemployment.
There is no other major metro in Texas with a better job picture than Austin-Round Rock and its neighbors. This isn’t to demean the others because the other biggies are all doing better than the very good 3.9% Texas state average. But it does reinforce how well Austin is doing.