Austin Market Update
November 27th, 2007 11:22 AM
Recently released from the Austin Board the update below is telling data about the Austin residential market slump that has gripped us for the last 3 months. The credit crunch, holidays, uncertain interest rates, and questionable consumer confidence have all played a role in slowing [...]
Austin Market Update
November 27th, 2007 11:22 AM
Recently released from the Austin Board the update below is telling data about the Austin residential market slump that has gripped us for the last 3 months. The credit crunch, holidays, uncertain interest rates, and questionable consumer confidence have all played a role in slowing sales. While the 15% decrease may seem like a big hit, it’s important to remember that 2005 and 2006 were stellar years for real estate in Austin. We saw fast sales, steady increases in values, and a generally national trend bucking economy here in Austin. An interesting thing to note in the press release below is that while sales have slowed, median price has continued to rise. As an Austin homeowner, you can’t complain about that.
November 18th, 2007 9:40 PM
It’s pleasing to see that in these times of uncertain economic futures, that Austin is still vibrant and drawing people to it with its strong economy, job market, positive lifestyle and affordable cost of living. As a transplant myself, having lived in Connecticut for most of my [...]
November 18th, 2007 9:40 PM
It’s pleasing to see that in these times of uncertain economic futures, that Austin is still vibrant and drawing people to it with its strong economy, job market, positive lifestyle and affordable cost of living. As a transplant myself, having lived in Connecticut for most of my life, I know what it’s like to live in a so-so place and then move to a place like Austin. Not to put down Connecticut, because it has its postives, but it’s nothing like Austin if you are under retirement age or less than affluent.
Austin sports some of the best weather, most affordable living, and most to do for those who have an interest in the outdoors, want to retire with a mind for making the most of their nest eggs, or have the desire for southern living in a progressive and diverse town.
I’m not much one for statistics, but below are some great details about Texas’ and Austin’s recent population growth! The snipet is from one of my favorite Austin Information sources, The Neal Spelce Letter (www.AustinLetter.com). If you don’t have a subscription, and you are interested in keeping abreast of the Austin events, I suggest you get a copy!
Here we grow again! Anyone looking around Austin knows the area is in the midst of a growth boom. But it is bigger than just Austin. Texas has had a larger numerical increase than any other state – at a growth rate (12.7%) twice that of the nation.
No matter where you go in urban and suburban Texas, it’s hard to get away from this growth (though we’ll mention some pockets of slow-and-no-growth in just a minute). If this trend from 2000 to 2006 continues, Texas is likely to add another 3.6 to 4.0 million people by 2010 – boosting its total population to more than 25 million, according to highly-regarded Steve Murdoch, who has made a career out of studying Texas population trends.
Austin’s population growth this century has been truly phenomenal. As an example, Dallas is the nation’s ninth largest city. Yet Austin added 18,600 people from 2005 to 2006 while Dallas added fewer – nearly 17,000. And Dallas was the eighth fastest-growing city in the nation.
Austin was the 6th fastest-growing city in the nation from 2005 to 2006 – by actual count, not by percentage (that favors smaller cities). This population explosion is happening all around us – in contrast to the rest of the nation. Texas had five of the ten cities with the largest numerical increases from 2005-2006. No other state had more than one.
In percentage terms, the nation’s fastest-growing place from 2000-2006 was in the Austin metro area – Hutto, in Williamson County, which grew by 666%! Also in the Austin metro, Kyle, in Hays County, was in 5th place, growing 289%.
Another one bites the dust!
November 13th, 2007 9:05 AM
Condos, Condos, Everywhere. The snippet below from the Austin Business Journal is another sign of the over development of downtown Austin. With thousands of condo units already developed or in progress, this won’t be the last development to abort or change use.
Several developments that [...]
Another one bites the dust!
November 13th, 2007 9:05 AM
Condos, Condos, Everywhere. The snippet below from the Austin Business Journal is another sign of the over development of downtown Austin. With thousands of condo units already developed or in progress, this won’t be the last development to abort or change use.
Several developments that we have worked with personally are seeing extremely slow going right now. As a buyer, now might be the time to get out there and see what kind of deal can be struck. The sellers are waiting and willing. If you’d like excellent representation give us a call. We’ll negotiate a great deal for you.
Housing Starts Down in Austin
November 9th, 2007 8:55 AM
In the last two weeks, I’ve seen a slowdown in the amount of traffic visiting my listings and the listings of my officemates. It is getting to be holiday season so part of the slowdown is to be expected seasonal decline in activity. When [...]
Housing Starts Down in Austin
November 9th, 2007 8:55 AM
In the last two weeks, I’ve seen a slowdown in the amount of traffic visiting my listings and the listings of my officemates. It is getting to be holiday season so part of the slowdown is to be expected seasonal decline in activity. When the buyer pool and activity declines you can imagine what most seller’s do. Price reductions are more common, seller concessions are often offered, and best of all buyer’s can get a good deal on the home of their choice. This is not to say right now you can make a 30% off offer on a home and expect the seller to thank you for your efforts, but with less competition, as a buyer, you’ve got a better chance of being the only person offering on the home and of having a reasonable seller.
If you’re a seller, you can make this market work for you. First you must realize that if you are moving within the Austin area, you’ll get less for your home, but you’ll pay less for your new home. Oftentimes seller’s and buyers see the market only from the position that they are in at any given time. It’s important to look at the market from all positions that you will be in as you calculate your bottom line and prepare to start negotiating to both buy and sell your home.
Below is a great summary of what the Austin market looks like and will look like in th enear future.
The excerpt below from The Neal Spelce Austin Letter (www.AustinLetter.com)
One of the reasons the Austin housing market is better than most other metros is the vibrant job market. But because new home construction is slowing, the number of construction jobs is diminishing. It’s a dichotomy that will impact the remainder of this year.
Large homebuilders, especially those with corporate offices elsewhere, are feeling the pinch of sliding sales in other states and are re-trenching here as well. It’s part of the corporate cut-your-losses-system-wide philosophy. Builders are reducing starts of single-family homes, townhomes and condominiums. How much has homebuilding dropped? Consider:
According to Eldon Rude, director of Metrostudy’s Austin Division, builders continued to reduce starts in the 3rd quarter. Metrostudy recorded 3,700 starts during the 3rd quarter of 2007. This is down 27% (1,361 units) from the 3rd quarter 2006. The annual starts rate was 14,436. This is down 23% (4,235 units) from the 3rd quarter 2006.
New home prices range from around $100,000 to the multi-millions. Are all price points impacted the same? Those that are, are not necessarily for the same reasons. The tighter mortgage loan policies are having an impact on the low end. Rude said: “a sharp reduction in starts priced below $200,000, especially in starts priced under $150,000, indicates where tighter credit policies have had the most impact.”
But this is not all. Within the Austin metro “move-up market,” (homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000) demand has also slowed and builders have reduced production in recent quarters. Rude observed that “buyers in this price range have become increasingly cautious about making purchase decisions.”
What does the future hold? “The Austin area will experience less demand for new homes in upcoming quarters,” Rude predicts. Rude’s reasons: “A sharp decline in relocation buyers, a competitive resale market and more hesitant home buyers are factors leading to the slowdown – as are decisions by corporate offices by the region’s largest builders.” He says “these decisions play a role in land acquisition, pace of starts, marketing and staffing.”
The good news? Rude echoes what we have reported previously: “Austin experienced only moderate appreciation in new home pricing in recent years, and this will, to a large extent, insulate the area from large price reductions that will plague the new home and resale markets in other parts of the country.”
Austin Metro Prices!
November 4th, 2007 11:17 PM
I must admit that since becoming a realtor and working in Austin, I’ve been jealous of the folks that moved on the California and Florida markets in 2002 and made a killing. That said, I’m sure glad that I’m not one of the last condos [...]
Austin Metro Prices!
November 4th, 2007 11:17 PM
I must admit that since becoming a realtor and working in Austin, I’ve been jealous of the folks that moved on the California and Florida markets in 2002 and made a killing. That said, I’m sure glad that I’m not one of the last condos going to be going up in Miami or one of the developers who just broke ground last year in California. Banking on a crazy year over year appreciation, while exhilirating if all goes well, is more of a gamble than I like to take. In retrospect I’m excited to own in the Austin metro area where we experience moderate year over year sustainable growth.
The excerpt below from The Neal Spelce Austin Letter(www.AustinLetter.com) gives guidance that Austin metro area home values continue climbing steadily – in direct contrast to many other US cities, where home values are nose-diving and predicted to continue that freefall.
For the past seven years, Standard & Poor’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices have tracked home prices in 20 US cities. Austin is not included in the Index, but it is informative to see what is happening elsewhere. Prices were down 4.4% in the past year in those 20 cities – the steepest decline since the Index began. Check out these year-over-year declines:
Tampa, down 10.1% … Detroit, down 9.3% … San Diego, down 8.3% … Phoenix, down 8% … Miami, down 7.8% … Las Vegas, down 7.6% …Washington, DC, down 7.2% … Los Angeles, down 5.7% … San Francisco, down 4.2% … Cleveland, down 4.1% … Minneapolis, down 4%…, New York City, down 3.8% … Boston, down 3.6% … Chicago, down 1.3% and Denver, down 0.4%. The home prices in the remaining 20 city list – Dallas, Atlanta, Portland, Charlotte and Seattle – were all up.
A separate report indicates this freefall will continue in California. Goldman Sachs, using a formula that involves historical home prices and income growth, figures homes are overvalued statewide in California by between 35% and 40%. This is astounding. What does this amount to in dollars? Goldman pointed out the median sales price of a California home in August was $589,000 – but that it should be around $375,000.
This California collapse has at least two effects in the Austin area: 1) Californians, taking money from the sale of their homes, will not have as much moolah as they have had in the past to buy homes in Central Texas, and 2) when Thanksgiving rolls around in three weeks, you can add to your “thankful” list that you live/work/play/invest in Austin.
Can’t beat a great local economy, a wonderful place to live, and predictable appreciation and valuation of one of your largest investments!
Happy belated Halloween! Can you believe that it’s already time to start preparing for Thanksgiving? Gobble Gobble
No Expanded Austin Trash Mound!
November 1st, 2007 6:28 PM
I’m a supporter of Texas Campaign for the Environment and today I got the snippet below from their mailing list. If you haven’t been following the battle that BFI (a large waste management company) and many residents of northeast Austin have been waging you’ll [...]
No Expanded Austin Trash Mound!
November 1st, 2007 6:28 PM
I’m a supporter of Texas Campaign for the Environment and today I got the snippet below from their mailing list. If you haven’t been following the battle that BFI (a large waste management company) and many residents of northeast Austin have been waging you’ll be glad to know that the residents and environmental activists have won. The proposed deal would have expanded the landfill 75 feet into the air. If you’ve ever driven out 290 east and seen the 90 foot high mound that is the landfill, you know how much of an eyesore (and nosesore) expanding the land fill to a massive 165 feet would be. Smells are already a complaint of the neighbors who live in nearby subdivisions like Harris Branch. In the past the state has agreed with the residents and fined BFI.
Victory on the Landfill Deal!
Thanks to an outpouring of opposition from the public, a 3-member majority of the Travis County Commissioner’s Court voted down a deal with BFI on Tuesday. The deal would have paved the way for an expansion of seven-stories of trash on top of its eight stories of trash at its problem landfill in Northeast Travis County. Commissioner Margaret Gomez joined outspoken opponents of the deal Commissioners Ron Davis and Sarah Eckhardt to reject the agreement.
You can read more about the landfill and the recent victoy here.
Travis County scuttles embattled landfill deal; Commissioner Gomez changes vote after public opposition
Travis County commissioners voted Tuesday to withdraw a deal that would have paved the way for a landfill expansion just east of Austin. (Austin American Statesman)
Travis residents rail against deal on landfill expansion
Travis County should not cut a deal with a landfill east of Austin that wants to expand, neighbors and environmental activists told county commissioners Tuesday.(Austin-American Statesman)
